KCI 등재
An empirical investigation of asymmetric J-curve in the commodity trade between Pakistan and her four major trading partners
( Saba Naseem ) , ( Javed Iqbal ) , ( Misbah Nosheen ) , ( Mark Wohar )
한양대학교 경제연구소 2022
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 27권  3호 191-234(44pages)
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2023-300-000844154

While previous studies have investigated the asymmetric behavior of the J-Curve effect using a Nonlinear ARDL methodology, our study employs disaggregated industry data to investigate this for the relation between Pakistan and US, China, and the UK. Our study contributes to the existing literature by estimating the J-curve phenomena between Pakistan and her four major trading partners; the US, China, the UK, and Japan at the industry level while allowing for asymmetry in the relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance. The present study estimates both the linear and non-linear ARDL models for selected 22 industries in the USA, 09 industries in China, 27 industries in the UK, and 15 industries in Japan that trade with Pakistan. The empirical exercise shows that the industries having symmetric J-curve effect are 03 in the case of the US and Pakistan, 01 in the case of China and Pakistan, 04 in the case of the UK and Pakistan, and 04 in the case of Japan and Pakistan either considering the traditional definition or the advanced definition of the J-curve effect. According to the asymmetric approach to cointegration, the J-curve effect exists between Pakistan and the USA, China, the UK, and Japan in 11, 02, 09, and 04 industries respectively. The results show that asymmetry holds in the case of many industries. The study indicates the asymmetric behavior of exchange rate changes concerning the trade balance.

1 Introduction
2 The Model and Methodology
3 The Results
4 Summary and Conclusion
References