KCI 등재
Cyclically adjusted price to earnings (CAPE) ratio and the federal funds rate
( Jack Dorminey ) , ( Eric Olson ) , ( Mark E. Wohar )
한양대학교 경제연구소 2021
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 26권  2호 191-208(18pages)
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2022-300-000775634

We investigate the risk-taking channel of monetary policy phenomenon through a joint examination of the level of interest rate and the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratio. First, using the methodology outlined by Bai and Perron (2003), we identify four distinct regimes in the federal funds rate. The CAPE ratio levels across the four federal fund regimes suggest that low rates are negatively correlated with the CAPE ratio. However, we estimate a SVAR and find that the level of the federal funds only has a significant effect in the high interest rate regime.

1 Introduction
2 Review of the Literature
3 Regime Identification and SVAR
4 Results
5 Conclusion
References